Silva set to return as Cubs battle Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

09/07/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cubs starter Carlos Silva displayed a lot of heart in beginning the season 8-0 over his first 11 starts. In an odd twist, that's exactly what has kept Silva off the mound since August 1.

Silva is scheduled to take the mound Tuesday against the NL Central-rival Houston Astros at Wrigley Field, and underwent a cardiac ablation to correct an abnormal heart rate. In his last start August 1 at Colorado, Silva left the game after just one-third of an inning and allowed two runs on two hits and a walk. Following surgery and a stint on the disabled list, Silva made a pair of rehab assignments for Class A Peoria.

The right-hander was then evaluated by manager Mike Quade and pitching coach Larry Rothschild and will try to get back to his winning ways tonight. Silva is only 2-5 with a 5.58 earned run average in his last nine starts, with the Cubs going 2-7 during that span. He won his last start on July 26 in a 5-2 triumph at Houston, as he pitched five innings of one-run ball. In nine career meetings (4 starts) with the Astros, Silva is 3-1 with a 4.63 ERA.

Silva, who is 10-5 in 20 overall starts this season, is holding opposing hitters to a .266 batting average.

Chicago has a chance for its first series win over Houston after taking Monday's series opener by a 5-4 score thanks to home runs by Marlon Byrd and Geovany Soto. The Astros put up four runs in the second inning, but Blake DeWitt's RBI single and Byrd's two-run homer in the third pulled the Cubs within a run. Jeff Baker stroked an RBI double in the fifth to even the score and Soto put the Cubs ahead for good with a solo homer in the eighth.

Cubs starter Casey Coleman allowed four runs, eight hits and five walks in six innings, while Andrew Cashner earned the win for a scoreless eighth. Carlos Marmol notched his 28th save with a perfect ninth.

"We want to leave on a good note," Soto said of ending the season in positive fashion. "All these young guys, they have something to prove. They want to open some eyes. They want to get looked at. We want to play hard."

The Cubs have won four of their last five games.

Houston entered Monday's game winners of two straight and 11 of 14 games, but a poorly placed pitch from Wilton Lopez ruined the party. Lopez allowed Soto's go-ahead home run in the eighth to absorb the loss for the Astros, who got a homer from Chris Johnson and an RBI apiece out of Jeff Keppinger and Hunter Pence.

"You just have to try to continue to scrap against them," Astros center fielder Michael Bourn said. "We had some opportunities we didn't take advantage of."

Wandy Rodriguez started for the 'Stros and permitted four runs on eight hits and a walk with six K's in the no-decision.

Taking the ball for Houston this evening will be Nelson Figueroa, who is 2-1 with a 2.36 ERA in 12 games (4 starts) this season. Figueroa previously took the hill last Wednesday in a 5-2 win over St. Louis, as he held the Cardinals to two runs and six hits in five innings.

Figueroa, a right-hander, is 1-5 in 12 lifetime games (six starts) in this series and threw two innings of relief against the Cubs in a 5-2 loss back on July 26 this season. He did not record a decision that day.

Houston has got the better of the Cubs for much of this season, having taken eight of 13 meetings between the clubs in 2010. The Astros have won four of the seven matchups held at Wrigley Field as well.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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